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Presidential Politics: Will There be a Torrijos Dynasty?
by John Lindsay-Poland
With the conclusion of electoral primaries by Panama's major political parties, the candidacies for presidential elections next May 2 are sorting themselves out. The leading candidate in early polls is Martín Torrijos, the son of former Panamanian leader General Omar Torrijos. The younger Torrijos was chosen among a dozen candidates by members of the ruling Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) in a primary on October 25.
A Gallup poll conducted from November 12 to 17 found that 40% of potential voters would choose Torrijos if the election were held then, against 24% for Arnulfista candidate Mireya Moscoso and 12% for Christian Democrat Alberto Vallarino. Nearly half of those surveyed (48%) believed that Torrijos would become the next president.
In addition to the leader who will preside over the transfer of the canal to Panamanian jurisdiction, Panamanians will elect 65 legislative deputies, two vice-presidents and twenty members of the Central American Parliament. Panama allows the election of president with only a plurality of votes, without requiring a run-off election. The current president, Ernesto Pérez Balladares, was elected in 1994 with only 33% of votes cast.
Torrijos received 56% of the primary vote, far ahead of competitors Alfredo Oranges (23.4%) and his brothers Hugo Torrijos (11.6%) and Omar (5.8%). Nearly half the party's membership did not vote in the primary. The winner and his family reportedly celebrated by spending a few days in Disneyworld, while others in his party dealt with charges of some cases of localized fraud.
Torrijos "is a new face in the PRD and is not yet contaminated" said one political observer. The young Torrijos, only 35 years old, studied at St. John's Military Academy in Wisconsin, after which he earned degrees in Political Science and Economics at Texas A & M University in 1986 and 1988. He then worked as a manager for McDonalds, before returning to Panama in 1992, where he took part in the PRD's political comeback.
With the PRD's victory in 1994, he was made deputy minister of Government and Justice, though he never became a full cabinet member. He was elected president of the PRD's youth organization in 1996.
Asked about the military regime of his populist father, Torrijos said: "The door was opened to countless Panamanians who had never been consulted before: those who never had the opportunity to develop socially, economically and politically. We recognize that it was the result of a military coup, but in the end, if we add it up, it was positive."
"For three years I worked for a whole month in state farms cutting cane and driving trucks," Torrijos said of his youth. "A couple times a week they sent somebody to verify that we had calluses on our hands to see that we were really working."
According to Christian Democratic deputy Guillermo Cochez, Torrijos' election "was the desperate reaction of the dominant group in the PRD to the candidacy of Alfredo Oranges. When the 'No' won in the August 30 referendum, Oranges became almost invincible, given the lack of alternative candidacies to President Pérez Balladares. Martín's candidacy only arose with the aim of holding back the uncontainable advance of Alfredo Oranges, promoting someone who would continue Pérez Balladares' plans, once he is in power. Martín's candidacy is negative, because it did not come from a new or innovative proposal, or as the product of the kind of offensive the PRD must make in the 1999 election if it wants to repeats its 1994 victory."
Torrijos has not yet put together a comprehensive platform, but has indicated his intention to carry out neoliberal economic policies on a slower track than the current PRD team. "Every government, including the last one, knew that there had to be a macroeconomic transformation. But because of fear of the political costs it wasn't done," he said. "Ernesto Pérez Balladares took some actions without regard for the high political cost they might have," adding that such policies must be carried out "with tact."
"Above all we have to improve our human resources through education and training."
"Pathetic" Penal System
The second leading presidential candidate, Mireya Moscoso, is the widow of Arnulfo Arias. Arias was a three-time president who saw his last presidency in 1968 cut short after 11 days -- by the military coup that was lead by Martín Torrijos' father. Mireya won the Arnulfista primary in March, beating out Alberto Vallarino two to one, and is supported by the small conservative MOLIRENA and MORENA parties. Vallarino, a banker, then left the Arnulfistas and was elected the Christian Democratic candidate on November 28.
According to Moscoso: "During my government, justice will be one of the highest priorities, and during my term the primary objective in this area will be to effectively respond to the judicial delays. The penal system is pathetic. Of $15 million requested, the Planning Ministry approved only eight million, and assembly's budget committee approved the smaller amount.
"We cannot accept that the prison system continues to return criminals to us who are more hardened and dangerous than they were before their detention. The main objective of these institutions should be rehabilitation during the prisoner's sentence, so they may be later adequately reintegrated into society."
An investigation by the Panamanian daily El Siglo found that Moscoso has a net worth of more than $39 million, with property ranging from a $6 million foreign bank account and coffee farms to a hydroelectric company and an extensive European art collection.
Actor and salsa singer Ruben Blades, who for a time led the polls as a presidential candidate in 1994, later to come in third place, confirmed that he will not run for election in 1999 with his Papa Egoró Movement. The only thing that concerns him, he said, is the continued existence of the party, which has been fractured by bitter internal struggles.
From May through August, opposition parties united against the ruling PRD, in order to defeat the constitutional referendum which would have permitted Pérez Balladares' immediate reelection. During that time, the PRD held only a nine-percentage point lead over the Arnulfista Party in the polls, which by November had grown to an 18-point margin. The opposition parties' hopes for uniting against the PRD political machine appear to be slipping away.
Sources: El Panamá América 10/27, 10/30, 11/20, 11/23; La Prensa 3/30, 10/26, 11/15, 11/25, 11/29; El Siglo 11/25.
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