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On August 30 Panamanians rejected a package of three constitutional amendments proposed by the Pérez Balladares administration. The most controversial of these was an amendment to allow immediate presidential reelection. Results were officially announced September 1- although the outcome was known from the day of the referendum- with 64% for 'NO' and 34% for 'YES' votes. Abstention was relatively low, at 34% of eligible voters.

Voters reported irregularities in the voting process, including complaints of easily removed indelible ink (used to mark the thumbs of those who had already voted), late-opening voting posts, and isolated events of illegal possession of arms and scuffles. In general both the governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and the opposition were satisfied with the process.

Scramble to restructure

PRD spokespeople accepted defeat while behind the scenes the party scrambled to restructure. Pérez Balladares accepted "humbly and with much pleasure" the results in a speech the evening of the referendum, while lamenting the people's decision "not to give themselves the right to reelect." He reaffirmed his determination to use his final year in office to "concretize [his administration's] work" and economic reforms.

Local PRD affiliates around the country sent out press releases calling for the replacement of the party's leadership, in particular of Pérez Balladares as president of the republic and Secretary General of the PRD. Pérez Balladares himself reportedly presented his resignation as Secretary General to the party's Directors' Council, which rejected it.

In addition, at least five cabinet members offered their resignations. Foreign Minister Ricardo Alberto Arias was replaced by Minister of Canal Affairs Jorge Eduardo Ritter, Housing Minister Francisco Sánchez Cárdenas was replaced by Gerardo Solís, and Labor Minister Mitchell Doens was replaced by Reinaldo Rivera. Minister of the Presidency Olmedo Miranda and Minister of Education Pablo Thalassinos also offered their resignations, although Thalassinos' resignation was not accepted.

Political sources attributed Foreign Minister Arias' resignation to differences between himself and the president concerning the text of the proposed bilateral agreement on maintaining U.S. troops in Panama under the auspices of a Multilateral Counternarcotics Center. Arias later stated that he resigned because the negotiations had concluded and were only awaiting a definitive decision from both countries.

Ministers Sanchez Cardenas and Doens had taken time off from their cabinet posts to coordinate the campaign for presidential reelection, and resigned for reasons of political embarassment. Both ministers were also recently involved in a scandal when it was revealed that ARI had rented them valuable properties in former military bases without ever putting them up for bidding. (see separate article)

Doens' resignation was hailed by labor leader Mariano Mena as a great favor to the Panamanian working class. According to Mena, Doens spent more energy on defending governmental policies than on resolving labor issues.

Elections '99

Ex-Minister Francisco Sánchez Cárdenas is one of several PRD members running in the PRD's presidential primaries, scheduled for October 25. His announcement was received with shouts of "Long live El Negro!" and "Now the people will really get power!" (a reference to Pérez Balladares' 1994 campaign slogan, "The people to power!") Sánchez Cárdenas is an Afro-Panamanian from a poor background who benefitted from General Omar Torrijos' education program and earned a degree in neurosurgery from the University of Valladolid in Spain.

Alfredo Oranges has also announced his 'pre-candidacy' for the presidential elections of May 1999. Called a traitor of the party by some, Oranges declared himself a potential presidential candidate before the August 30 referendum, with the support of Torrijista dissidents within the PRD. Oranges recently presented a notice to the president magistrate of the Electoral Tribunal, Eduardo Valdes Escoffery, accusing PRD leadership of conspiring to cancel his candidacy. Some consider Oranges and Hugo Torrijos, nominee of the PRD's Business Front and son of General Omar Torrijos, to be the strongest candidates for the PRD's primaries next month.

The opposition

While the PRD's August 30 loss brought calls for resignations and voluntary resignations from some of its leadership, an avalanche of potential presidential nominees coming in its wake suggests the party is not taking its loss so badly. Opposition parties, in contrast, while celebrating the recent victory, appear to have been caught unprepared to take full advantage of their win.

Arnulfista Mireya Moscoso, banker and Oppositional Action leader Alberto Vallarino, and the capitals' mayor Mayín Correa are the three opposition presidential candidates with significant popular support. Several members of the opposition have talked of forming an alliance around a common presidential candidate. Popular Nationalist Party leader José Alvarez has stated his party's support for the capital's mayor Mayín Correa, without discarding the possibility of forming an alliance with Oppositional Action leader and banker Alberto Vallarino, Arnulfista leader Mireya Moscoso, and Papa Egoró leader Ruben Blades.

However differences as to who would head up this opposition presidential ticket may cause difficulties. Some worry that these divisions will weaken the opposition in next May's elections.

Analysis

Sociologist and director of the Panamanian Center for Research and Social Action Raúl Leis divides the August 30 referendum's votes into 'faithful' or party-line votes, patronage votes, and votes of opinion. In the aftermath of the PRD's defeat, most observers have focused on the votes of opinion which derailed the governing party's first choice and best chance for a May 1999 win.

The ARI scandal, involving ex-Ministers Francisco Sánchez Cárdenas and Mitchell Doens as well as two Panamanian Supreme Court Justices, is the most recent example of government corruption which may have won some votes for the opposition.

For many Panamanians, Pérez Balladares' apparent willingness to essentially give away the Canal area, which will finally come under Panamanian control on December 31, 1999, was an unacceptable betrayal of Panamanian sovereignty and may also have turned people against him. (see separate article)

The most popular reason among Panamanian activists for the reelection proposal's defeat has been a rejection of Pérez Balladares' neoliberal economic policies, which he used as a campaign tool. Enelda Rosales of United Panamanian Teachers added such policies would not be accepted from any other party either. Mariano Mena, leader of the General Central of Panamanian Workers, called the victory 'a chronicle of an announced death.'

Simeón González, a member of the National Movement for the Defense of Sovereignty warned opposition parties not to assume the defeat of Pérez Balladares' reelection initiative was their victory, calling it a statement of the Panamanian people.

Panamanian critic Roberto Méndez points out the habitual arrogance demonstrated in both Pérez Balladares' disdainful framing of the issue in terms of Panamanians' declining to give themselves "the right to reelect"-- him, that is-- and in his determination to continue economic reforms despite obvious and strong opposition. Pérez Balladares also demonstrated this attitude at a rally in Colón in late May, where he declared to the crowd that those who criticized his economic reforms are "either blind or idiots."

Panamanian Economic Minister Guillermo Chapman denied that the president's economic plan had been the cause of his failure. However, he admitted as much when he declared that "much bravery is necessary... to carry out an unpopular economic program and make decisions that bring a political cost."

Leaders from opposition parties pointed to the consolidation of democracy by curtailing any one individual's ability to monopolize the political scene, and ensuring a degree of alternacy of power.

In Peru...

In contrast to Panamanians' recent victory, the Peruvian movement to solidify democratic alternation of power suffered a defeat last month.

Democratic Forum, a coalition of organizations representing dfferent sectors of Peruvian society, presented the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) in mid-July with 1.4 million signatures calling for a referendum to overturn a law which would allow Fujimori to run for president in the upcoming elections. Fujimori has held power in Peru since 1990. If he is allowed to run and wins in the next Peruvian presidential election, he will begin his third five-year term. Fujimori's altered the Peruvian constitution in 1992 to alow reelection to a second term. Reelection to a third term is currently unconstitutional in Peru.

Based on a new laws governing referenda-- and contradicting previous National Elections Board rulings-- the OPNE suspended its signature count on August 10 and the referendum was submitted to a congressional vote. Congress narrowly defeated the initiative on August 27 under strong governmental pressure.

Despite this defeat, opposition legislators and other members of the opposition spoke of the movement against Fujimori's reelection as the beginning of the end of Fujimorismo and the beginning of a new era in Peru. Polls continue to show a disapproval rating of about 68% for Fujimori, and a 78% disapproval for congress' rejection of the referendum initiative.

Sources: Resumen Político y Electoral 8/31, 9/1, 9/2, 9/3; La Prensa 6/1, 8/31; El Panamá América 6/1, 9/3, 9/6; Robert N. Mendez 9/1; Weekly News Update 8/23, 8/30, 9/6; Peru Peace Network Unofficial Update 8/13, 8/28, 9/10.